On Gambling and Manipulation of Outcomes

For whatever reason, I have had very minimal consumption of IPL for last few seasons (perhaps after Sourav Ganguly got dropped by all the franchises). Of course it is difficult to avoid it completely. Every coffee shop, pub, quiz or anybody’s house you go to, the matches are going on in the wide flatscreens on the wall. Twitter and Facebook have nothing else on the time line.

When the news of the arrests of Sreesanth, Ankit Chavan and Ajit Chandila broke,  I suppose, there were a billion people who were betrayed (trust TOI to come with such a pompous headline).

(On the other hand, there were those self-righteous equally pompous folk who tried to shout they should be excluded from the billion people betrayed. Hey, the population of India is 1.21 billion as per the 2011 census. So consider yourself to be part of the 0.21 billion people whom TOI left out in the headline)

Anyway, to get back to the case of spot fixing. there has been a continuous feed of comments, views and recommendations on the issue. One such theme that is going around is the idea that legalising betting will reduce spot fixing. Nitin Pai explains this here. The logic used is that legitimising betting coupled with tougher enforcement reduces the incentive to cheat.

There is a fundamental flaw in this argument. Betting or gambling is one activity. Spot fixing (or match fixing or any related activities) is an act of manipulation. These are two separate acts and deal with different facets of human nature.

Gambling involves taking a chance on the likelihood of an event happening the way you want. In gambling, you are away from the actual event, an independent observer who cannot in anyway influence the outcome of the events. There are horses running and you bet which one will win, come second, etc. The outcomes are dependent on the horses and how they perform, you as a bettor have no influence on it. In a way, it does not matter whether it is called a game of skill or game of chance. As a gambler, your lack of control is the same. What separates a game of chance from a game of skill is the ability to make some informed guesses about the outcomes. Knowledge of the skills involved in a particular activity can at least give you an idea as to which one is more likely to win. If you are betting on a match between Roger Federer versus Rohan Bopanna, for example, a little knowledge about the abilities and previous records of either person as well as a general understanding of tennis as a sport will give you the insight that it might be a good idea to bet on Roger Federer to win.

(Of course, there is the other form of gambling – risk taking. People take risks with their careers, businesses, sporting performances, etc but here they directly influence their performance and success. We are not talking of that kind of gambling – where you gamble on yourself)

For the gambler, there is a basic expectation – that the events are made to happen within their existing known environments. Apart from force majeure, there is no out-of-the-ordinary actions which can influence the events. Whether the outcomes turn out the way the gambler wanted or not, as long as they happened within their internal logic, the gambler can live with it. In sport, the gambler expects that the contestants will apply their best skills / play their regular game and whatever happens in the end is a result of the fair contest.

Spot fixing / match fixing is different from gambling or betting. This is a case of manipulation. In order to achieve specific outcomes, external entities try to influence the events.

In the stock markets, investors can take a chance on a company and invest in it. They expect the company to operate in a fair manner in the market place and based on its performance, issue out appropriate returns. Now, if the someone decides to tamper with some aspects of the company to artificially boost the stock price, then that becomes a case of manipulation (the stock market version of fixing). The phenomenon of insider trading is a known evil in business. There are have been many cases of media publications (and journalists specifically) who have stakes in specific companies and publish unverified / false news reports that can drive up the stock prices. The media publication might issue a correction in the next issue but in the interim has already made the profits.

In cricket, what has happened has been specific individuals (bookmakers) influencing the game by paying cricketers to not play as per their best skills or natural game. This is an act of manipulation aimed at getting the desired outcomes.

In the IPL itself, this may be one of the many types (i.e. driven by betting) of manipulation that occurs. Since teams are run by businesses and many of these businesses use the teams to build their brand equity, often one sees players included in teams when cricketing logic would suggest that they should be dropped. Sachin Tendulkar, for example, according to cricket experts, should not be in the team. But he is a big draw – he pulls in people to the stadium in Mumbai, his numbered T-shirt sells more at all the outlets, its his face leading everyone on all the group photos used in the various endorsements. So he needs to be in the team, not for cricketing outcomes, but for more mundane business outcomes.

In the football fixing scandal, there was an out and out deliberate program to influence sporting encounters. An international operation spanning China, Philippines, Singapore betting on matches in Finland and Sudan does not come up randomly. There was tremendous planning and creative thinking in actually executing the whole operation. In fact, special football matches including international friendlies were organised simply for the purposes of betting (and the syndicate making money from the fixed outcomes).

So why are these bookmakers / syndicates manipulating the game? For the same reason that journalists manipulate news to promote the stocks that they own. They have a lot to lose / and a lot to win. And when you have a lot to lose, you want to control the events and make it go your way. You are uncomfortable and helpless otherwise. (According to some reports, Gurunath Meiyappan seems to have lost over Rs 1 crore in bets. That is a lot of money to lose. He needs to recover that money.)

There is also the thrill of being in control, having the power (money, position, authority) to drive things your way. Why would the head of an IPL franchise (the India Cements folks are desperately trying to wipe out all mention of Gurunath M on their site) try to go beyond his immediate functions and try to manipulate games? Because he can. He can order the captain to pick a particular player irrespective of cricketing logic. He can insist on certain formations. There’s a thrill to it.

To bring back Nitin’s point about the legality of gambling or betting, whether the bets were done through legal or illegal channels does not make a difference. People had too much going for them to remain silent spectators. They needed to influence the conduct of the matches. Even if betting was legalised and there were legitimate businesses running betting shops, the law still can’t do anything to stop the gambler / bettor from approaching the players and making attempts to get events happen their way.

The presence of the underworld is not so worrying. In fact, because it was the underworld who are under constant observation by the police (through phone taps), this whole saga was exposed. It is the explicitly legitimate personalities and organisations that one is more worried about.

Most cricket fans remember Dennis Lillee and Rodney Marsh betting against their own team in the Headingley test of 1981. England were in an impossible position and the bets were going at 500-1 for an England win. After England won, powered by Ian Botham and Bob Willis, there was a huge furore when it was revealed what Lillee and Marsh did. Did they manipulate their performances so that they could win the bet? Probably not. But you never know.

Manipulation of events cannot be reduced. As long as there are people who have a huge stake in the events, there will be attempts to control or make things go in their favour. But there can be a way out for the public to protect themselves. And the way out is transparency.

In the stock markets, one of the key roles of institutions like SEBI or SEC is to ensure there is transparency in the workings of all publicly listed companies. Every bit of news from personnel changes to purchases of new offices to mergers and acquisitions have to be made public. Specific advisories and guidance reports have to be given by the company management on what they are planning to do, their strategies, their thinking, etc. There are mandatory disclosures that have to be done. Investors benefit from this transparency. They can decide for themselves which companies are operating in a fair manner. They can pick companies where they can predict correctly. It also makes it difficult for individuals within companies to get away with rampant manipulation. A newspaper making a claim about a company has to be backed by a corresponding disclosure / public statement. Without the later, the SEBI can pull up the company for falsification and fraud.  They may not get caught immediately but whether it is Satyam or the LIBOR scandal, it comes a full circle in the end.

Sport, whether in India or abroad, is mired with opacity and obfuscation. Organisations like FIFA, IOC, IAAF, etc are known for all the stuff that is left unsaid. The selection of a host city for the Olympic Games (and what happens behind the scenes) is the subject of many investigative journalistic efforts including a book. The shenanigans of Indian sporting organisations are just a drop in the larger ocean.

What the public needs is more visibility. Even WWE publicly declared the nature of its wrestling contests (as part of some regulatory tax filing). In spite of the scripted contests (or maybe because of it), WWE still has its own cult and audiences. Sport will also have its audiences but the people who run it need to be (or forced to be) open about what they do.

For a team that is representing the country and carrying the India flag, it is expected that the nation knows how or on what basis the specific 11 individuals were selected. (In the case of Olympic sports, Indian athletes’ travel and allowances are paid for by the government, i.e. tax payers money. The case for right to information is stronger here.) It is expected that the selection committee select the team that can best deliver results. If there is any other motive to selecting a player leading to a sub-optimal team, then that is a break in the expectation of the nation.There are enough instances of people trying to figure out strange team selections. But selection committee meetings are never made public. And in the press conferences, the selectors are instructed by the BCCI to not say anything. By forcing the BCCI (and all other sports organisations) to be transparent and make public disclosures of what happens in every meeting, it makes it difficult for individuals within the BCCI to get away with many things.

Prem Panicker has spent most of his life writing about cricket and has regularly written about the need for BCCI to be more transparent. As of now, Prem has given up on the sport.

Maradona and Shahrukh Khan

It is the dilemma of Himalayan proportions. And for fans of Argentina and KKR, it is a hellish price to pay.

You want KKR to win but you don’t want to see SRK dance naked.

You want Argentina to win but you don’t want to see Maradona run naked.

Sometimes, you just want to forget it all.

Selections and Form

Midway through the IPL many countries announced their 15 member squads for the ICC T20 World Cup. And as things usually happen, the guys who didn’t get selected suddenly found the middle of their bat or their bowling rhythm. The effect of this is that on many cricket portals and forums, these standard questions get raised:

“Why no Uthappa in the Indian team?“

When you have Raina, Rohit Sharma, Gambhir, Sehwag (at that time), Yusuf Pathan and Yuvraj (inspite of his pot belly), where’s the space?

“Why Chawla and not Ojha?“

Probably the only valid question. And still unanswered.

“Why no Murali Vijay?“

One question that has been deactivated so to speak. But the Uthappa question became even more shriller.

“Why Vijay and not Uthappa?“

The questions were not just about the Indian team.

“Why didn’t Australia pick Bollinger?“

I guess they didn’t see him good enough. Or, given that it is the Australian team, the ones who have been selected are better. Having said that, with Brett Lee’s injury, Bollinger was in with the chance of getting a call up. Unfortunately for him, it’s Harris who’s in.

Tomorrow onwards, this question is going to be top of the charts.

Cricket, IPL, etc

Does this fit your own description?

1. You watch IPL on TV with the sound on mute
2. You wonder why some random Carbon Kamal guy gets so much airtime
3. You wince every time a tracer bullet goes out
4. You wonder why Ajit Agarkar still gets a bowl
5. And you feel MRF has been cheated. Or they are conning us. Instead of a blimp, the ad agency supplied them with an inflated balloon

If it does, two good web destinations for the cricket lover:

Prem Panicker throws Yorkers everyday at 3.30 pm at his new home. Just sign in with your name and you could be chatting up with like minded cricket aficianados like Harsha Bhogle, Aakash Chopra, Thejaswi Udupendra, Ramesh Srivats and occasionally yours truly (and a billion other Indian cricket lovers)

For a more serious coverage of the game, you need to read Anand Ramachandran’s The Heavy Ball in Cricinfo. Anand Ramachandran who goes by the twitter alter ego of @bigfatphoenix has done a Ph.D on cricket strategy (under the guidance of the great Kartik Bose) and can tell you in a flash how Shane Warne has managed to get Munaf Patel to dive and actually field a ball (Of course, most people believe Munaf simply stepped on his shoelaces). Some of his analyses are extremely erudite, if I may use the word.

And to top it all, don’t forget to read Bobbili Vijay Kumar, National Sports Editor of the Times of India, every Sunday. He gives Rapidex English Speaking Course a complex.

Cricket News This Week From Harsha

He is probably the only cricket commentator on air today for whom the mute button is not required. But he is an equally articulate and sharp writer. Harsha Bhogle writes about three big events of the cricketing week

Pakistan:

Big landlord arrives, cleans up the shed; next landlord puts the old chickens back in. The cricket lover, like RK Laxman’s common man, looks on, perplexed and neglected. To be honest, the Pakistan cricketers don’t have much sympathy around the cricket world, but what of the fans? What about the little eight-year-old who wants to wear a replica Pakistan cap and cheer for Afridi and Yousuf and Younis? What happens to him? His heroes, and those who manage his heroes, frequently seem to have less passion for the team and the country than he does. His lot is to be let down. I wonder if people blinded by egos even realise that.

Match Fixing in general (one of the allegations laid by the PCB on its players):

On that count, India have been blessed. The results will be good one day and bad the next, and fans will be delighted and frustrated in equal measure. But when the disease of match-fixing threatened to infect India, the eight-year-old (and the 30-year-old who behaved like the eight-year-old) had proud people to look up to. Tendulkar, Dravid, Kumble, Laxman, Ganguly, Srinath – these were men of character. Fine cricketers they might have been but fine people they were too. Their solidity, as much as their results, took cricket through its testing years.

IPL begins:

Meanwhile the IPL, as a cricket tournament, has crept in.

IPL News Block out:

I don’t know the details of the dispute but I do know that if I took great pains to produce a product, if I licensed it to somebody and a third party used it for profit, I would be very upset.

There are some other strange events happening. West Indies are hosting Zimbabwe and in the five matches so far, a tour game, a T20 International and three ODIs, Zim have won three – the tour game, the T20 and the first ODI.  Barring the last game which WI won by 141 runs, none of the matches have seen the WI really dominate. They apparently haven’t realised that they are not playing Australia but Zimbabwe which does not even feature in the ICC rankings. Sample this, in the second ODI, WI have a small matter of 209 runs to score in 50 overs. From 44/1 they become 85/4. Sometimes you wonder where does all that talent go? It’s a rum one.

And this one from the tour match between Bangladesh A and England. BD A second innings in the 64th over 160/5 with Mohd Ashraful (imagine a former captain and a prodigy now resigned to being in the A side) gets out. Ten overs later,  the total is 362/6. Saghir Hossain retires hurt conveniently. Dolar Mahmood (66 of 19) and Shuvagato Hom (91 of 42) with 17 fours and 14 sixes make mayhem of long hops and full tosses. They were hitting 24 runs of an over. It was that crappy.

Anyway Deccan play Kolkata in a few hours time. See you then.

Circus Begins

So it’s that time of the year again when commentators cease to be cricket pundits and instead become advertising voice over artists; batsmen become butchers while bowlers simply relish the large sums of money that they are receiving for getting butchered.

Sourav’s Knight Riders and Adam’s Chargers kick off the show tomorrow at Nerul. I must say that both captains seem to be underplaying the whole thing.

Adam says:

“Everyone team is affected by the international schedule. It is not a surprise. We are only one of the teams who are not full-strength as yet. But it is about the Indian contingent and how they perform that can often determine the results.”

Dada says:

“It’s a new set up at KKR. We have done the best in everything we can, hopefully we will deliver. I am not too keen to talk about the past. We have a good atmosphere.”

But the events leading up to this IPL, like last year, have been quite dramatic

• The Pakistani players ignored in the auction
• Ravindra Jadeja not getting a contract
• Kieron Pollard, based on his performance in the Champions League and Australian T20 championships, becomes the most expensive player
• News media boycott
• Deccan Chargers denied their home turf i.e. Hyderabad
• The bids for the two new franchises postponed
• etc

The saving grace seems to be that it is happening in India.

But for all that we say, it’s going to another month of heavy blogging, tweeting, facebooking, etc about the games. I suggest a few themes on which to keep an eye on

Player v Team owner brand index

Count how many commercials / endorsements feature players and how many feature the glamourous team owners?

Hugs and Kisses

At the end of the game, watch which players get hugs, kisses or just hand shakes from Priety Zinta / Nita Ambani / Shilpa Shetty / Shahrukh Khan / who else?

Cliche 101

Ravi Shastri, LS, Arun Lal, Danny Morrison, Ranjit Fernando, et al. Enough to publish a compendium of cliches. Don’t forget the newspaper men and the numerous bloggers.  Special claps to those who find those beauties like “The phoenix rises like the light at the end of the tunnel” and “the uncrowned grandfather of IPL“.

Dot Balls

It may be a good idea to track dot balls.

Imagine pub conversations “Did you see Dravid leave that ball out side the off stump? What technique! The bowler had no clue.” “Yup, simply awesome”.

Obviously better conversation than this one “You know, Pollard’s 9th six was 45 degrees south of his 6th six but they hit the same signboard at the same time as LS cried ABC Maximum” “Yes, but when JPD hit his 1st six 25 degrees wide of Nita Ambani, LS was busy describing the movement of her significant physical anatomy and he forgot his lines.”

Kartik Bose

Finally, don’t forget Kartik Bose.

Cricket Post: Bangalore v Mumbai

Bangalore has had a recent resurgence with two consecutive wins, first against Kolkata and then against Punjab. With six points, they had the opportunity to win and jump to the top four on the table. Mumbai on the other hand already had 8 points and would have gone to the top of the table. I live tweeted the entire match and I am putting it here as a full report of the match.

Exciting stuff here, Ravi says. First thing I hear as I switch on the telly. South africans take over RCB, get JPD. Exit of KP significant?

Note: Had a conversation with Dibyo on this. Dibyo said KP may not have known about Du Preez and Van der Merwe. Also, KP as a bat did not really shine. A shame because “it would have been a treat, Bangalorean or not“

Dravid back in the team. Am not sure if Uthappa still makes the grade. But possibly no Indian alternative available

SMG says Du Preez is a ‘surprise package’ cos he took wkts of SRT & Rahane, etc. ‘inspired selection’. bcos SMG has no idea who this guy is

Jaya – 39, SRT – 36, Jumbo – 38, RSD – 36, Kallis – 35, that’s the line up today. Young man’s game, anyone?

Note: Got it wrong, he is 33. Doesn’t change the purport of my tweet anyway

Jaya has just started scoring freely. But has to stop because of the tactical time out. Likely we will see AK 1st over after the break

8 off AK’s 1st over, all run. SMG feels 39 year old Jaya’s legs will cave in with all the running. What all does he get away with, does SMG.

Note: In Twitterland, we have had major things to say about Sunny Gavaskar’s commentary, not all of it is fit for publishing.

120 – 130 target likely. RCB will have to watch out for their first over wicket blues. No Ryder mind you, that should help I suppose

MI did very well in part 2 of their innings. Nayar seems hot candidate for Indian team for the World T20 team.

Note: In the last five overs, MI (Bravo and Nayar) put up 63 runs. Tremendous stuff. MI were 53/3 at the end of 10 overs. They finished with 149/4.

MI 149. Think it is going to be really tough for RCB. Their batting has been much under par. And today they have Wasim Jaffar to open.

Jaffar, a solid opng bat, says SMG, opportunity to show he relishes the game. What a contrast to his talk re M Vijay y’day

Note: Sanjeev and me had a banter about the propensity of the “crawl” when Jaffar and RSD come together. Sanjeev suggested that RSD and Jaffar would not complete 150 runs even in 50 overs, leave alone 20 overs. But Sanjeev then disproves himself by pulling out stats where Jaffar scored 178 of 132 balls. And argument about RSD is non starter anyway.

camera pans the crowd and shows all posters which sya inane things like Thank You IPL etc. Think they are planted by LM pr team

Note: Really, in all the cricket across the world, where have we actually seen posters thanking the tournament, board, board members, organising committee members, administrators, etc. You think an average Indian cricket fan is going to make a poster saying “Thank You Niranjan Shah”?

Lots of chikni chicks in the Mallya box waving RCB flags. My guess, Mallya has got his F1 pit babes over for the weekend.

Jaffar really wasted that over. Five dots including the ball that he got out to. Upset the rhythm they had first 2 overs.

Kallis takes 2 sixes of Malinga’s 1st over. Makes up for the previous over depression. Kallis going at 200 SR

Kallis timing and placement is outstanding tonight. He has been shining infrequently this #ipl . Hope he carries on for a big one

Danny Morrison reports that there are 35 cameras covering one match. That’s more than the number of players in the KKR team.

Note: This KKR team is a joke and hence making more jokes referring to them is perfectly okay.

Malinga bowls a maiden. Uthappa kept swinging his bat and hit nothing. Will have to be made up in this Nayar over.

Just 3 runs in the last 2 overs. RR has nosedived.

KP may have gone but seems to have left his scratchy play with Uthappa, including the stupid switch hit shot

Time out break > time required to smoke a kingsize cigarette

Nayar’s bowling run up and bowling in gen is reminiscent of Chris Harris and Gavin Larsen

+15 (Prem’s system), 9 wkts in hand. This is RCB’s game as of now. If they win, the ipl is wide open. Only KKR are assured of 8th spot

Zak’s going off. Won’t be avail to bowl a few overs at least. This will be crucial for MI.

This one is definitely planted “Lalit Modi, we Indians are proud of you”. They prbbly hand out these posters saying u’ll be on tv

Note: See above. LM has definitely done a good job, he has made a big business killing. He’s a successful fellow. Right. Poster in the stadium? Why not for Ratan Tata? For Dhirubhai Ambani?

Ok Robin Uthappa has just pressed a button and found his form. That six makes it +2 now. Are we done here?

1st fifty for Robin in all the #ipl matches he has played over two years. Underperformance to the hilt. Anyway, makes RCB much stronger.

16 off 18, that’s -2. This has been the best batting performance of the #ipl so far. Just good intelligent stuff runs all over the park, etc

9 wkts, 11 balls to spare. That’s 2 out of 2 for AK as captain. This Indo-RSA combo for RCB seems to be a sound strat.

DC, DD, MI and RCB all 8 points. CSK, RR, KxiP on 7 points. This would be good fun.

Bangalore thus move to the fourth spot. Lots of matches still to be played. But, the general thinking is that 7-8 wins should see one through to the semis. So RCB have three more matches to win at least (and one of them is against KKR). But of course, KKR is not so much significant as all teams have matches against KKR. Delhi infact has yet to play KKR, so they have two potential wins there.

As of now, from the consistent form on display – Hyderabad and Delhi look solid; Mumbai & Punjab are slightly more consistent than Bangalore, Rajasthan and Chennai.

But, to borrow from Ravi Shastri’s cliche list, the tournament is going to the wire.

All about Ganguly’s fans

Gulu Ezikiel, to use a cliche, let the cats out of the bag with his unnaming of the identity of the Fake IPL Player. Essentially, he implicates two people, a Bengal Ranji opening bowler and if you have read the blog & figured out Lordie, then a former India captain (of Kolkata).

For those who do not believe in subtleties, not that there is anything left, this is Ranadeb Bose and Sourav Ganguly. For those of you who follow Ranji Trophy cricket, Ranadeb is the opening bowler of Bengal. Couple of seasons back, he was the most successful bowler in the entire season. He was picked in the 2007 England but did not get to play in any match (a couple of tour games maybe). It is very unlikely he will ever play for India given that India is well served by Zaheer Khan, Ishant Sharma, Munaf  Patel, RP Singh, etc.

Sourav Ganguly on the other hand we know of very well. A person who triggers extreme emotions – either you like him or you don’t. As a Ganguly fan, one should not be under any illusion of his “holiness”. I may not expand further on this as I would not be able substantiate with any evidences.

Fans of Ganguly generally believe that Ganguly is always “targeted” by the media as a bad boy. It is not fully correct. The media has written as many positive and encouraging stories about Ganguly as critical.

1. As a player, there is no doubt he is one of the best batsman ever to play for India
2. He is the most successful captains
3. He built a team
4. He has tremendous mental strength (which I find most endearing for me)

So if you see any article saying something about Ganguly, do not jump to his ‘defence’ because many times none may be required. Just hush and move along.

Cricket Redux

A very insightful article in the London Times on the impact of T20 cricket. What is even more interesting is the spate of comments this article has generated.

“We want sixes and we want them now” read one banner at one of the games. William Rees-Mogg writes, “…Sixes can become a bore, like the battues of pheasants by the thousand at Sandringham in the days of King Edward VII. Sixes laid on in Twenty20 matches can be mere satiation.”

I personally feel that this was coming because of the lack of competitiveness in test cricket – with Australia driving ahead in one direction and teams like West Indies and even Sri Lanka just falling away in in test cricket standards. In the last ten years, there have been only 3 or 4 competitive test series of note – India-Australia (2001, 2004), the Ashes of 2005, are ones I remember.

In T20, everyone, even Zimbabwe has a chance, (well, they beat a jet lagged sleepy Australian side at the World T20).

Unless all the test teams significantly raise their standards make every test match more and more competitive (with good pitches, etc.), T20 will take the headlines

Some interesting comments,

“Yes, I have many sympathies with the way the classical off-drive has been replaced with the slog-sweep as the shot de jour and the various tactical battles fought over the course of a 1st class match are being lost.” – Stephen, Northampton, England

“I’d rather see a condensed version of the matchups and strategies employed in a T20 game, in an evening of fun filled with beer, friends and T20.” -Ravi, Chicago, USA

“This is not cricket – it is a seditious subversion of a fine game to suit the cantankerous whims of film stars and liquor barons.” – Shishir Baxi, Dubai,

I saw my first match yesterday. Virender Sehwag in Andrew Symonds over hit three sixes and equal number of fours and took an evenly poised match to a match that became a virtual walkover. One just realised that it can be over in a blink. Whoever paid Symonds $700,000 lost their money before he could even start counting the notes.